Basket & Barometer April 2026

Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat

We read the March 2026 retail and economic data against a month shaped by war and an early Easter, where strong headlines hide weaker high street reality
• March footfall rising year on year but flattered by a weak 2025 comparison
• BRC sales growth driven mainly by food as households buy ahead of Easter
• Non-food sales growth lagging inflation and remaining fragile
• High street sales down sharply with food and drink spend falling hardest
• Pay-cycle spending patterns and how Easter timing shifts monthly demand
• GfK consumer confidence sliding with personal finance views turning negative
• Inflation pressure from housing and fuel costs pushing consumers to save more
• Major purchases feeling riskier as caution rises
• Unemployment dipping while economic inactivity increases, changing the real story
• War-driven fuel prices feeding uncertainty with a possible staycation upside

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Transcript

SPEAKER_00 0:07

Welcome to the Productivity Podcast. This is our basket and barometer episode for April 2026. And as ever, I'm joined by Diane. Hi Diane.

unknown 0:17

How are you?

SPEAKER_00 0:17

Yeah, good thanks. And we are in March 2026 for this this episode and all the stats. And unfortunately, this is the month of war.

Footfall Up And Food Leads

High Street Sales Slide In March

SPEAKER_01 0:28

It is, I'm afraid. You know, we feel the felt the full force of the Middle Eastern war this month. But interestingly, the data shows a mixed picture. And partly that's due to the timing of Easter. So Easter, as we know, was the first weekend of April this year, so it's a little bit earlier than last year. Last year was more middle of April. So what we saw in terms of footfall, firstly, is that footfall actually increased year on year in March, as measured by Sensomatics. So across all retail stores, footfall went up by 2.4% annually. That sounds great and it is quite positive, but it has to be put in the context of a low comparable in March 2025, which was a minus 5.4%. So there was a big drop in March last year. So subsequently, we have a slightly better increase this year and it looks more positive. But having said that, it did bounce back partially, which is which is good news. Also, retail sales as measured by the BRC was also quite strong at 3.6% up on March 2025 versus 1.1% in March 2025 versus March 2024. Again, strong, but underlying that is where the spend came from. And virtually all of that increase was due to an increase in food sales, probably because of buying food ahead of Easter in March. So food sales were up 6.8%. So a nice chunky increase compared with just 1.6% increase in March last year when people probably bought their food in April. Non-food sales were up by just 0.9%, and actually non-food in store sales were up 1.4%. So not huge increases there below the rate of inflation. So food was definitely the driver of uh sales increases. So some positive indicators there, but not on the non-food side, I'm afraid. Looking more closely at the high street, the high street had a particularly challenging time during March. Sales now high street sales are measured by Beauclair, sales were down by 8.2% annually. Quite significant. And there are five sectors that account for over 80% of sales in town centres, and all of those five sectors had decreases in spending, quite significant decreases. So fashion, food and drink, general retail, grocery, and health and beauty. And actually, food and drink, which is the largest proportion of sales in town centres now, around 25% of all sales in town centres are on food and drink. That declined by 11% from March 2025 to March 2026. And that follows on from a 5% drop in March 2025 compared with March 2024. So, you know, we saw a big drop in food and drink, and that was probably people holding back on spending in anticipation of Easter in early April. So not particularly positive for our high streets.

SPEAKER_00 3:22

Is that because Easter tends to draw us into different destinations rather than high streets?

Confidence Drops As Savings Rise

SPEAKER_01 3:29

High streets do fairly well at Easter. It's interesting when you look at the pattern of spend across high streets annually about from week to week, there is always a peak on the last week of the month because people get paid and they go into high streets when they have them their salary. What we've seen actually is usually in the intervening week, so the second and third week, we see a dip in spending, like a little U-shape. And actually last year, over April, we saw actually a little uplift from week to week in April. And it was the only month where we actually saw that little slight hump. Every other month you saw a U-shape. So I think people do go into High Streets, but of course, in March, what they're doing is holding back on spending in March because they want that budget to be available to them for Easter. So they they will tend to say, Well, we won't go out to eat and drink in March, we'll wait until you know, Easter, particularly as Easter was so early this year in April. Didn't have wait long to wait, really, and they got paid, and then the next week was Easter. So that probably played into that a lot. You know, people just said, No, let's be cautious, let's do it when when Easter comes, and we've got a long weekend, to be fair. So the tithing of Easter makes a big difference. What is always really helpful in understanding the pattern of spending is consumer confidence because that's always about how people are feeling in regards to spending. And GFK are our source for that. And what they do is they they carry out a survey of consumers mid-month. So whilst we're talking about March's data, we actually have April's results. And over the past three months, there's been a continual drop in consumer confidence. So their index score, which is a combination of how people feel about their own personal financial situation and the wider economic situation, has dropped from minus 16 in January to minus 19 in February to minus 21 in March to minus 25 in April. So we are seeing that people are feeling less confident around and about spending money. And those drops have been in all aspects. So in both in the general economic situation, but also in people's personal financial situation over the next 12 months. And interestingly, for the first time since April last year, has that personal financial situation score been a negative? So in April it was minus 4%, minus 4%, March it was one plus one. So we can see it's gone into negative territory for the first time since April last year when it was minus three. So people are feeling cautious, they are holding back, they know you know there's lots of talk in the media about increase in fuel prices, and that's flowing through to inflation. You know, inflation's gone up to 3.3%, largely because of costs are associated with housing costs and fuel costs. So people are pulling back on spending inevitably.

SPEAKER_00 6:25

So that that will have impacts on holiday purchases, big ticket items, houses, cars, I assume, because if we're starting to save more, those will be the things that the considered purchases stop.

SPEAKER_01 6:38

Yeah, absolutely. I mean they haven't made GFK have a major purchase index, which stay has stayed at minus 18 from last month, but that dropped from minus 14 in February, which dropped from minus 10 in January. So we can see that people are feeling nervous about making these major purchases, and their savings, so they've got a score for savings as well, which is really helpful because the ONS savings ratio is always quite out of date. The savings score has gone up from 27 in March to 32 in April, and in February it was 21. So we can see that people actually have been set saving more each month, and the more nervous they feel. So they've got them, probably got the money because we're seeing wage increases, still not as great as they were a year or so ago, but you know, we're still seeing wage increases, but people are stashing it away rather than sending it.

Why Unemployment Fell On Paper

SPEAKER_00 7:28

Yeah, and there was, I think the start of the year the Bank of England said they expected to raise interest rates a couple of times this year, obviously dependent on inflation. So that that kind of plays into that. And some people might be confused because halfway through this month it was reported that unemployment had dropped, and we've been talking over the last four or five podcasts about how it's grown, how it's higher than ever, how that is it think it's 16 to 24-year-old age group of the the biggest out of out of work since I think it was almost the war or pre-war. So can you explain how on the on the suppose on the face of it it looks like it's dropped, but really it's not?

SPEAKER_01 8:09

Yes, that is interesting, a really good point. So we had the latest unemployment results come through for the period from December to February, and that came in at 4.9% versus 5.1% for the period from November to January. So yes, you're right, it looks like it looks actually quite positive. It looks like it's dropped, but actually the reason it's dropped is because the level of inactivity, economic inactivity has uh has increased. So people are pulling out of the workforce, essentially. So there are fewer jobs, you know, there are fewer people looking for jobs, so those people left have a greater chance of getting a job. But actually, it's fewer people people are just choosing not to work and not to put make themselves available for work.

SPEAKER_00 8:50

It was interesting because I've I read the stats like you, and I was thinking it'd be the older demographic people retiring thinking that's it, but actually there was a big slug of students that have also decided they're not available for work as well, no.

SPEAKER_01 9:03

Yes, I think they you know, I think they found it really tough to get a job. So they've just sort of given up, really. And they've retr withdrawn from the labour market, you know, and focusing on other things, either travel or study or other things. So, you know, it it the the numbers at the surface level can be deceptive, so it's really important to start to you know drill down a little bit and understand and unpack it and understand where those numbers are coming from. Uh, because certainly you know, employers with fewer people in the marketplace, it's you know, it's it's more difficult to fill the jobs if you've got fewer people going for them. So, and also, you know, if you've got if you've got fewer younger people, then then you've got lower paid jobs, you it's difficult to fill those. So it's it's really difficult for employers.

SPEAKER_00 9:49

And I know the war has a a significant impact outside of the stuff we're talking about, unfortunately, for those people that are caught up in it. But the the fact it's now been a couple of months and depending on you who you listen to, there's a quick ending site or there's not, it's it's not been quick. If it carries on and kind of a bit like the Ukraine unfortunately becomes the more of the norm, I assume that's just gonna keep fuel prices high, uncertainty around spending, all that kind of stuff in in the general forefront of everybody's mind.

SPEAKER_01 10:24

Absolutely. I mean, because if you think about fuel, it you know, it permeates every sector, every organization. No, fixed costs are gonna go up. You know, I was look I was w watching all about the the price of milk, and you know, the the producer milk at the price they're being paid has dropped, so the supplies being pulled out the marks that means that you know the cost of milk is going up. All of those, all the products that we buy is gonna are gonna be influenced. And we know that even if the war were to end tomorrow and the Straits of Hormos were to open, it would take a few months for things to settle back down to where they were. So we're looking at a the best part of 2026 with higher fuel prices, which of course means that inflation will stay high. And therefore, what you mentioned about you know interest rates, interest rates are A, are likely to come down and B possibly go up. So that's going to be tough for all of homeowners who are counting on interest rates coming down.

SPEAKER_00 11:17

My only thought on all of this was if fuel's high, clearly the the airlines have been talking about cost of flights and pulling flights and cancelling flights. Maybe that means we're back to kind of that whole staycation world of it it drives more money, ironically, in into our economy because less people are going away.

SPEAKER_01 11:36

Yes, absolutely. I mean, there's always an upside to a downside, isn't there? Yeah. And you know, if people can't get flights or they're too prohibitively expensive, then they possibly will be looking to stay in the UK over some, particularly if you know it's forecast to be quite a nice summer. Then, you know, hopefully there will be an upside for domestic businesses and domestic hospitality. So we can only hope that comes to fruition a bit really.

SPEAKER_00 12:01

Perfect. Well, another tricky month. We we seem to say that every month now, don't we? Another tricky month, but this one more so with clearly the war unexpected and and spiking those prices. Next month we'll talk about April and we'll have Easter in that?

SPEAKER_01 12:17

Yes, we will. We'll have Easter results in there.

SPEAKER_00 12:20

Perfect. And then really the big there's a couple of single-day events, isn't there? Then there's kind of your mother's day, your father's day, and and what have you, and then we're really through through into the summer, and then we'll be before we know it, back around talking about Christmas again.

SPEAKER_01 12:33

Oh cracky.

SPEAKER_00 12:36

Well, if you work in retail, the buyers have already done their work, haven't they? And it's it's probably all all planned and uh locked and ready to go somewhere for the appropriate time. But um yeah, on that note we'll pause there. Thanks, Di, and we'll catch up next month.

SPEAKER_01 12:50

Right, thanks, Simon.