Basket & Barometer December 2025

Building on the success of footfall insights we broaden the conversation with the Basket & Barometer podcast. Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat

We dig into why Black Friday footfall held up while November spending slumped, and what that split means for December. We talk inflation turning to deflation in fashion and furniture, caution on inventory, and the ripple effects that hit suppliers when retailers stumble.

• Footfall marginally down on Black Friday day, week up 1.1% year on year
• November spend down 7% in towns and cities, steepest since July
• Budget jitters and weather weighing on sentiment
• Christmas timing supports a late pre‑holiday push
• December growth outlook moved from +1.5% to flat
• BRC: food drives growth, non‑food barely moves
• Inventory discipline favours sell‑through over deep January markdowns
• Fashion and furniture show deflation amid heavy discounting
• Employment and housing trends dampen big‑ticket demand

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Chapters

• 0:14 Setting The Black Friday Scene
• 0:48 Footfall Data And Weekly Trends
• 1:36 November Spending Slump Explained
• 2:39 From Black Friday To Christmas
• 3:42 December Forecasts Turn Cautious
• 4:06 BRC Numbers And Non‑Food Strain
• 4:45 Golden Quarter Stakes And Risks
• 5:23 Profit Warnings And Supplier Fallout
• 6:29 Employment Shifts And Cost Pressures
• 8:46 Inventory Discipline And Softer Sales
• 9:09 Inflation, Deflation And Heavy Discounting
• 10:22 Fashion, Parties And Mild Weather
• 11:05 Furniture, Housing And DIY Links
• 11:44 Closing Wishes And January Outlook

Transcript

SPEAKER_00: 0:10

Welcome to the Rethink Productivity Podcast. We are Basket and Barometer Episode 2 with my fellow host Diane World. Hi Dyke.

SPEAKER_01: 0:19

Hi Simon.

SPEAKER_00: 0:20

How are you doing?

SPEAKER_01: 0:21

I'm good, thanks. How are you?

SPEAKER_00: 0:22

Good. Well, we're almost at Christmas. So this is this is the interesting episode. The next one will be more interesting because this one we've got a Black Friday in. Next one, hopefully, we'll have some Christmas data in. So Black Friday. I d actually don't really remember people talking about Cyber Monday. It all seems to have blended into Black Friday, doesn't it? But go on, hit hit us with the news.

SPEAKER_02: 0:44

So spend we don't have spending for Black Friday itself, but we do have some footfall data for Black Friday period. Black Friday on the day, footfall data was saying that we were just down on last year. Sensomatic came out with some numbers that said footfall um across all retail destinations was 3% lower than last year. But the week from the Friday before to the Saturday, which takes in Black Friday, was one per 1.1% up on last year. So it's it wasn't amazingly fantastic, I don't think, but it sort of held its own Black Friday this year against last year, which is quite good because last year, November and Black Friday was quite strong. So that that's good news. But of course, come with good news there comes some not so good news. And November as a whole, as I'm sure it won't be a surprise to anyone, was really poor in terms of spending. Beauclair spending, which is spending in towns and cities, reported a drop year on year of seven percent in November, which is pretty significant. It's the largest drop since July. And it's great in the drop in October of 4.1%. So we can see the consumers really reined in their spending during November. Of course, we had all the the media coverage and the the the uh budget jitters of what it will be in the budget, what won't be in the budget, and I think it really uh spooked a lot of consumers and it's forced it forced them to hold back on on spending anything really. And so they saved it all for Black Friday, of course, which is payday weekend and had a little slurge then, but didn't do it in the preceding three weeks.

SPEAKER_00: 2:22

So good Black Friday, does that typically carry then into Christmas through? I think on previous ones we've we've seen it hold relatively consistently. I mean, I suppose to give some context, weather's been rubbish. Good news, just literally half an hour before we recorded this interest rates have gone down to 3.75%. Bad news unemployment's at a record high since 2021, especially in that kind of university lever age bracket. So we are we heading into consistent trading through from Black Friday to Christmas, or will it drop off and pick up again?

SPEAKER_02: 2:58

Well, the the trend over the last sort of decade or so has been for trade to drop off post-black Friday, um, and that we get a sort of quite lull and then it it ramps up. Good news this year is Christmas is on Thursday, so we've got virtually a whole trading week to to make some of that up, which is good news. Not quite a trading week, but quite a lot of it. So that will help. But typically Black Friday brings it all forward, it has done for years, but it's better they spend it at some point in November rather than not at all. So that's really the the the the trend in in December. I did actually forecast an increase in spending in December of one and a half percent, purely because last December spending dropped by around about seven percent. It was really very poor. Having seen what's happening consumer-wise, I'm hesitant to think that that will happen actually. And I'm not sure we will be seeing one and a half percent increase. We may be seeing flat on last year, which is pretty pretty challenging for retail. The BRC also came out with some numbers for November, which were okay, although not great. Um, overall retail sales were 1.4% up, which is the lowest increase for six months. But most of that was driven by food and increasing food spending of 3%. Non-food spending rose by just 0.1%, which of course is way below inflation. And and non-food in store spending actually dropped by 0.3%. So, and that includes all different channels. It includes high streets, shopping centres, retail parts, etc. So it's definitely been very challenging during this November. But I don't think that will be surprised to anyone listening to this podcast.

SPEAKER_00: 4:45

No, no, I think everybody's in that boat, and all the retailers we've been speaking to in the last month or so. Christmas Golden Quarter's always big. It it feels maybe slightly bigger this year. There's there's more on it. Those that those that do well, I assume the kind of big four supermarkets as ever will will do really well. I think there's quite a few out there that there's a lot of hopes pinned on this, and it it could be unfortunately make or break.

SPEAKER_02: 5:11

Absolutely. I mean, Christmas generally is that time of year when for retailers who are finding it really challenging and have huge cost pressures, it is make or break. We don't typically see the fallout of that until mid-January, really. So we may see some fallout from that, but definitely there have been. I mean, Card Factory posted a profit warning and said that sales would be lower than then they forecast due to low footfall. I mean, Card Factory are value, so if they're struggling, and that will be partly because their overheads are so huge relative to sales. So yeah, I think it's going to be if it's this year, I think is very challenging. And it's it's you know, it's the it's the reverberation from the budget back in April and the impact on on retailers of increased cost base. That's flowed through to employment. We know unemployment's really high, or the highest it's been since 2021, and it's actually gone up a little bit. And actually, I heard this week that the economically inactive, which were those people who are not looking for work, has actually dropped. So they are coming starting to come back into the workforce, possibly because of cost pressures on households, which will of course make it even more difficult for the unemployment rate to decrease. So yeah, it's challenging.

SPEAKER_00: 6:30

Yeah, interesting. And you touched kind of on people um talking about profit warnings, etc. So interesting story for you. I I sit here in front of me, and I'm actually looking at it as we talk, with a cheque for£317.37, which is our payment from, and I won't name the company, but they still trade, a retailer we work with in 2018, that on the Friday we presented the results to, and on the Monday did a CVA.

SPEAKER_02: 6:58

Right.

SPEAKER_00: 6:59

So we are what five, seven years later, and for a project that was worth about£20,000 plus, we've ended up with a check for£317. I think the the moral of that is when people see companies struggling post Christmas, there's a fallout for all their suppliers too. Oh, absolutely. The ripple effect is huge. We're we're a small business, right? And and that's not easy to take, but it is what it is. It's in the past, you know. But those companies do CVAs and still trade, others, unfortunately, don't make it through. But it's not just them and their employees and customers that suffer, it's all their suppliers and their suppliers, suppliers. So hopefully everybody has a great Christmas. I suspect there just unfortunately won't be some that make it through February, March. The impact isn't that big news story of that brand, it's that plus the ripple effect.

SPEAKER_02: 7:52

Absolutely, absolutely, it flows right through the chain. And of course, all the employees that would have been affected wouldn't have got necessarily got their salaries for that month. I have been victim of that a long time ago, admittedly, but you know, you wait and you wait and you wait for your for a few pence in the pound for what you're owes, and you could be waiting years as you did for that. So and at Christmas, that's tough, or post-Christmas, that's particularly tough to take. So, yes, it's yeah, I mean, retail is always a challenging business. Even when times are good, it's challenging. But I think because we're seeing so little growth in the economy, and all of the indicators are so far have been pointing in the wrong direction, as it might it it sort of compounds that hugely.

SPEAKER_00: 8:37

Yeah, and this is normally a time when I'd say, but the good news is the sales will be brilliant. What I'm seeing is people have pulled back on stock as well. So actually they're prepared to sell through or sell out rather than hold more stock and then just basically burn margin post-Christmas. So I'm I'm not as as confident that actually the the byproduct of this is as a consumer, January sales will be brilliant.

SPEAKER_02: 9:05

No, and it's quite interesting actually, because uh I was looking at inflation as well, because I always look at the indicators before sort of chatting to you. And the latest inflation results came out very recently, and of course, inflation has dropped to uh to 3.2% from 3.6% in October, which is seemingly great. And actually, looking at the individual categories is quite really quite revealing. So you look at clothing and footwear, and inflation is now deflation. So in November the prices drop by 0.6%, and that's showing that you know retailers are discounting massively on fashion just to get it out the door, and on furniture likewise, furniture is 0.3% deflation. So there are, you know, there's still some inflation in the economy, there's some inflation in food still, on restaurants, it's 4.6% still, but in fashion and in furniture, you know, they are discounting heavily.

SPEAKER_00: 9:57

Yeah, yeah. Fashion probably doesn't surprise me again. I'm amazed this time of year, all the party dresses and shirts and things that are still in there, and correlate that, I suppose, to people working from home. And my assumption is there's just less big Christmas parties and from HR not wanting them because of all the kerfuffle that typically happens afterwards in big organisations. So that that probably feels like that. And the and the weather, I suppose it's the seasons have merged, haven't they, massively this year?

SPEAKER_02: 10:23

Yeah, it's not been particularly cold. We had one cold spell in November, I think it was, for a few for a week or so, but really it's been fairly mild. And that doesn't prompt anyone to go out and buy new winter clothes and things, or winter coats and boots and things that you can sort of make too, really.

SPEAKER_00: 10:39

And yeah, furniture's always that, I suppose, more considered big ticket spend, isn't it? That absolutely if you've got the money, I'm sure you'll do it, but for those that haven't, it maybe goes gets kicked down the road or becomes something that goes on a more of a credit agreement. So yeah, not the typical purchases.

SPEAKER_02: 10:57

So and also associated with house to house market, housing market. I mean, and you know, there's been reports out recently that the house prices are have fallen£7,000 in the past couple of months. So, you know, and uh and are not due to increase by any significant amount in the forthcoming months. So, you know, the need there are new house that's typically when you go and buy new furniture, isn't it? When you go and buy a new house. And if you're not buying a new house, you might make two.

SPEAKER_00: 11:21

Yeah, and then brings you back around to DIY, because that's when you do your kitchen, your bathroom, all that kind of stuff. So it again, a bit like the previous conversation, there's there's lots of knock-ons, isn't there? It's like peeling the onion. You you we peel back one layer and there's three or four underneath that have a an impact.

SPEAKER_02: 11:36

Absolutely, absolutely.

SPEAKER_00: 11:38

So we're almost there. I'm sure most of us have done our Christmas shopping. Every everybody in retail will have been done weeks and months ago to get ready for this and doing the the final straight. So I think just wish every wish everybody great trading from now to the the Christmas period and that people get a bit of relaxation and rest and then go again for for the January sales.

SPEAKER_02: 11:59

Yeah, no, let's hope it's all healthy and happy and we have a good festive trading period, fingers crossed.

SPEAKER_00: 12:06

Absolutely. And we'll be back in January with uh hopefully positive news.

SPEAKER_02: 12:11

Absolutely.

SPEAKER_00: 12:12

Thanks, Di. Have a great Christmas.

SPEAKER_02: 12:13

And you, Simon.