Basket & Barometer November 2025

Building on the success of footfall insights we broaden the conversation with the Basket & Barometer podcast. Diane Wehrle CEO at Rendle Intelligence and Insights joins Simon for their monthly chat

In this episode we cover why average transaction value now matters more than footfall, and how Black Friday has shifted the peak. We share sector signals, consumer confidence trends, and what the budget and labour market mean for Q4

• Footfall softness versus inflation-adjusted sales decline
• Average transaction value as core survival metric
• Examples of ATV growth in small towns
• Discounting patterns and price guarantees in Black Friday
• Staffing planning shifting towards November peak
• Sector signals in health and beauty and fashion
• Consumer confidence at minus 19 and job market risk
• Online share stabilising and omnichannel basics that matter

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Transcript

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SPEAKER_01 0:05

Welcome to the Productivity Podcast. This is the first in our series Basket and Barometer,

New Series And A Shifting Economy

SPEAKER_01 0:10

which is renamed from Football Insights with Diane Well. Welcoming back, Diane. How are you doing?

SPEAKER_00 0:15

I'm very good, Simon. How are you?

SPEAKER_01 0:17

Good, good. We've both been away and all sorts of things. So we're going to catch up on two months today, aren't we? September and October. Lots going on, and at the time of recording, we are a couple of days away from the budget. I don't know if I'm I'm not looking forward to it. I'm keen to know what's in it, but I'm not looking forward to it. So yeah, lots happening in the world, still a bit of political unrest, all those things, Donald Trump weighing in and out of all sorts of things. So consistent theme for you know football insights and I'm sure for basket and barometer moving forward is that the world, the world's an ever-changing place, we're evolving, aren't we? And and being agile and having to make quick decisions, especi especially in that retail hospitality space.

SPEAKER_00 0:58

Absolutely. I mean it's interesting, isn't it? Because retail is really challenging this year, but then it's always been challenging. I mean, I've been working in retail for oh quite a long time now.

SPEAKER_01 1:08

Don't mention years.

SPEAKER_00 1:09

I know exactly. Um, I started very young. Um, and it's it's never been a case of where we've gone, this is a brilliant economic environment. Even when it was pretty strong, we didn't really ri appreciate that it was strong because we always had something to groan and moan about. But it is challenging, but retail is still retail. And I was out and about on Saturday, and the stores were busy and people were still buying, and albeit they may not be buying in the same quantities and the same values as before, but they're still buying. But you know, retailers need to be nimble, so we can run through some of the numbers.

SPEAKER_01 1:39

Um we can, but we'll start, I'll we'll start with the story. I didn't tell you off air because I wanted to tell you on air and engage your reaction. So I was out and about shopping on Saturday as well in the Trafford Centre in Manchester, and it was it was very, very busy, probably a bit a bit too busy for my liking, but you know, we went on a Saturday and it was Black Friday week weekend. Really good deals, went into a well-known sports shop, bought my son something for Christmas, queued up about eight minutes, not that we measure time particularly actually, but it was not eight minutes. Yeah, I know, and I was uh getting

The Black Friday Queue Story

SPEAKER_01 2:10

a bit frustrated, as was everybody else in the queue, because it was busy. Paid, the lady apologised, thank you very much, and she said to me these exact words are you paying by card? I said yes, please. Said press the green button, press the red button, tap your card. What did I do? Press the green button, press the red button, tap my card, because that's what she told me to do. Now, what I was actually doing, because it it didn't dawn on me until I came out, because I read the screens and still pressed the buttons. The green button was to say I'd had a great customer experience, and the the red button was to say that I didn't want to donate, I think it was 20p rounding it up to charity. Oh and it and I and I kind of came out thinking I've I've slept walked through that because all I've done is been so frustrated and I want to get out because it's busy, I've done what she's told me to do. But that store looks like it's going to have a great customer experience on that Saturday, all the staff will be happy, the senior leader should be happy, head office will be happy, and it and the reality is it wasn't. And the poor charity, they're just telling everybody to press the red button. So, on one hand, it it looks good that you've got this great experience. On the other hand, there's this poor charity saying we're not getting many donations from this retail. I wonder why. Yeah, it was just a point of you know, you've got to you've got to sell to your existing customers because it's hard to get new ones, but don't always believe the hype of the data if you're working in a retailer you get and you've got to go and see it.

SPEAKER_00 3:28

Absolutely. I mean, retail is people, isn't it? It's about relationships, and what they've done essentially is soured your opinion of them for the future, which is a very short-term method of working, really, because you will think twice about shopping in there again.

SPEAKER_01 3:44

Yeah, and the irony was the the lady on the till was very good, very polite, apologetic. The experience at the till was okay, the overall experience I waited too long, but they'll their data will show not that it would have named me, but in my contribution, that it was fine.

unknown 3:58

Yes.

SPEAKER_00 3:59

So what are you gonna do?

SPEAKER_01 4:00

What are you gonna do differently? Nothing.

SPEAKER_00 4:02

I know exactly. We still get a great pat on the back and probably a bonus.

SPEAKER_01 4:04

Yeah, exactly. And they might be incentivised against it, I don't know. But I think my wider point was in an in an environment where it's really difficult to get new customers and even retain the ones you've got, kidding yourself that something's good when the reality was something very, very different. What action are you gonna take in it? Well, probably none because you think it's alright.

SPEAKER_00 4:23

Absolutely. Well, sometimes it's a lot cheaper and a lot quicker and a lot easier, isn't it? Not to do abs uh anything at all and just carry on.

SPEAKER_01 4:29

Yeah, um so I I'll I'll monitor, I'll keep an eye on when they're announcing their their figures, and yeah, I'm sure they'll be up and it'll all be great, but the reality would be it's probably probably not as good as it could be, or not not as bigger opportunities there. Anyway, that would that was my interesting recollection from my Saturday shopping on Black Friday. I say I sleptwalked through it and it dawned on me in the way. What have I just done?

SPEAKER_00 4:50

I have I have seen a greater pressure amongst people I places I've transacted with to leave positive Google reviews as well. Actually, in fact, I was in one restaurant and the girl actually filled it in for me. She pressed the button on the stars for me.

SPEAKER_01 5:03

Been there before, yeah.

SPEAKER_00 5:04

And I thought and I said, hang on a minute, you've just filled that in for me.

SPEAKER_01 5:08

Yeah. Well, and that and that's the problem. When it becomes what gets measured gets managed, age-old retail stuff.

SPEAKER_00 5:14

Yes.

SPEAKER_01 5:14

And I know we're diversifying slightly, but that's the point of this newer updated podcast. I think I've been in places recently where somebody's the whoever's served me has perceived they've given me good service

When Metrics Get Gamified

SPEAKER_01 5:25

and they've circled their name on the receipt and said if you don't mind filling it out, you know, I'm Adam, da da da da. And I've also been in places where somebody's not been very happy, and guess what? They don't give them something to fill in. So you can, I suppose my wider point, and this isn't just about customer experience surveys generally, you you can be very selective in how you distribute, and that has a very, very significant influence on the the stats, doesn't it?

SPEAKER_00 5:52

It does, and it's a very easy these days to collect data. I mean, data, you know, there's a whole there's so many channels to collect data, so there's inevitably a greater reliance on those data, the data that's collected in an automated way. But actually, if you go back to 20, 30 years ago, a lot of mystery shopping took place, yeah, and you get a lot greater insights through that type of approach where you know someone's sitting there as a potential customer experiencing it and reporting back on their individual experience. So I think uh you know, a realistic view on data and you know processes needs to be taken, and but also a willingness to change.

SPEAKER_01 6:27

I mean, I think that has to be the case rather than and I think that's the point with all the the point we're both making is if you're playing the system, what that retailer hospitality company is missing is that feedback that says this this didn't work for a number of people on a number of occasions, what can you do differently to make it work for others or those people again? And negative do differently feedback is probably even more powerful than the than the this person was amazing, because they're probably always amazing and not everybody recognises them, and it's great they get some personal recommendation. But anyway, the the wider point is if if you're not acting on the feedback you get, if it's not true feedback, you can't be different, therefore, you're only going to keep on getting what you get, right?

SPEAKER_00 7:07

Absolutely. I mean it's interesting because the data that Beauclair provides looks at all the different sales metrics, and one of those is average transaction value, and that's a really important metric at the moment because we're seeing continuously the number of transactions and the number of customers drop year on year. So fewer people are buying, we know that. So there's a full smaller pool of expenditure for the retailers to take out of, and what they need to be doing is maximizing the value of every one of those customers. And I'm actually working with a small town who are utilising Bauclair's data, have seen a big uplift in their ATV over the last year, continually, every month virtually, they've seen this big uplift. All that despite the fact that the number of customers and the transactions is declining. So they're obviously doing something right, you know, and this uplift is greater than inflation, so it's not just inflationary uplift, it is more than that. So those businesses are actually implementing something that's attracting greater spend from a smaller number of customers, and that can only be good, particularly for a small town that has a constrained catchment area. Yeah, so they're doing that, so it's a tick in the box for them, and so that's that is that's fantastic, and also they're quite an interesting cut town because they've got a different profile from a standard high street. Fashion isn't a big player for them because they're a small town, grocery, functional items, household items, uh health and beauty, and to a lesser extent food and drink. So it's a very different profile from some towns, but they're actually starting to see some growth there, which is really positive. So there are some real shining lights out there that is taking place.

SPEAKER_01 8:38

Yeah, and I think we've said it before, and I'll say it again that one of those key metrics for any retailer at the moment, hospitality business is driving ATV growth. It's much easier to sell to your existing customers than get new ones.

SPEAKER_00 8:49

Absolutely, and it's so much more valuable. And you know, if you have a smaller number, a smaller pool of customers, you start to get to know them and start to personalize shopping experience to a far greater degree, and everyone's much happier. So that leads us back to the numbers.

SPEAKER_01 9:03

Let's share that. Show me the good news

Data, Mystery Shopping, And Real Insight

SPEAKER_01 9:05

then that everybody's doing that, it's all in growth. Rachel Rivers has got no worries coming up. September and October were.

SPEAKER_00 9:12

Well, let's start with footfall because clearly most places need footfall to survive, and footfall has dropped as it has been doing for a decade or more. September dropped by 1.8% and 0.7% across all of retail in high streets by 2.5% in September annually, and by but it rose slightly in October by 0.6%. Now, that's great. That means you know, there were slightly more customers in October this year than there were last year. But is this translating into spending? Not so much. So the BRC, which tracks spending across the entire piece, online, offline, in in town, out of town, saw an uplift of 1.6% in sales in October. So, but that's not as great as the rate of inflation, which is sitting at 3.6. So, you know, in real terms, spending has dropped. And Beauclair, who look at spending just in towns and cities, so taking out retail parks, taking out outtown shopping centres, they saw a decline in both September and October of 4.1% in each month. So, you know, there's challenging times ahead and therefore for towns and cities. You know, but you know, it's been ever thus, you know, people, you know, if you're feeling insecure about your long-term financial prospects, about your job, and we know employment is now 5%, and that's the highest since January 2021. People are going to be sitting there feeling very nervous. And of course, we, as you mentioned, we've got the budget, which at the time we're recording, it's two or three days away. People are wondering how it's going to impact their own household budget. So they're being, you know, mindful of what they spend, and quite rightly so.

SPEAKER_01 10:48

Yeah, so we we predicted at our forum a couple of months ago that it would peak at 5%. So it's got there a little bit early. So with what's coming in mind, clearly lots of businesses will make or break in in the next couple of months as well, in terms of it being their biggest quarter outside of those companies like DIY that it's Easter. I would suggest that it's going to be higher than 5%, maybe even touch six then coming next year.

SPEAKER_00 11:15

I agree. I mean, I'd the you know, the unemployment rate is not going to increase rapidly in the next month or so because people want to retain their staff for Christmas. But once whatever is in the budget comes comes to fruition, and you know, whether that be increasing the national living wage, you know, VAT

Average Transaction Value As Lifeline

SPEAKER_00 11:32

there, it's all on the table, isn't it? That is gonna hit come, you know, it's gonna come to bear in a couple of months' time. So, you know, we get through Christmas, get through New Year, and it's sort of Fed March time that we're gonna see the start to see again some increases in great more increases in unemployment.

SPEAKER_01 11:49

And there was a big pullback in graduate courses, I think, announced this year from you know all the big consulting houses, all the big motor manufacturers. Yeah, so then you've got I suppose that tailwind of uni leavers come what April, May, June that hit the market, and there's there's just no jobs there again.

SPEAKER_00 12:06

Absolutely. I mean, grad jobs are harder to come by than they have been for a long, long time. And you know, the and also at the same time, you know, when grads jobs were hard to come by, a lot of graduates went and did some temporary work in bars and pubs and restaurants, and they're cutting back on unemployment as well. So it's really tough out there for a lot of people. So it isn't surprising that spending has been very subdued. Having said that, we're now looking toward Black Friday, which is the end of this week, as we record. And I don't know about you, but my inbox has been flooded with Black Friday offers, as it always is, I have to say, but it is clearly a much longer period than it was in the past, and we know this now. And I wouldn't say it's a Black Friday month, but it's certainly at least a week, if not two or three. Looking back, looking sort of forward to where we are likely to be this Black Friday versus last Black Friday, is quite interesting because actually last Black Friday was actually very strong in terms of sales in towns and cities. They were 1.8% up on 2023. So my forecast of Black Friday, which I put together just before the beginning of Q4, was saying that we were anticipating that sales would be down by 1% year on year, but that still may come to fruition because actually there's been a fair bit of discounting out there. So, you know, we're not we're expecting a better month in October, but not as great a month as last year.

SPEAKER_01 13:29

Yeah, and I'm seeing a lot of electrical discounting, things like PlayStations, the Plot 5's the cheapest they've ever been, certainly your white goods. Probably not so much, I know we talked about it before in terms of that furniture space. There's more blanket discounts of 20% off here and there. But the one thing that I have seen, I don't know if you've seen it a lot more this year, is in those emails, I'm getting a and we guarantee this price won't be any cheaper in our sale.

SPEAKER_00 13:55

Yeah, yes.

SPEAKER_01 13:57

So that giving the consumer that confidence that you can buy it now, that's fine, don't wait, because clearly the sooner the retailer can bet get the money the better.

SPEAKER_00 14:06

Yeah, I think I think that's true. And I think actually what is happening now is that everyone was talking for years and years and years about Black Friday bringing Christmas forward. I think it's most definitely that, and I think actually the peak that we used to experience just before Christmas, that run up to Christmas, I think that's going to become much more subdued. It's going to be sort of stocking fillers and you know that sort of thing, and people are going to use that last week for a bit of leisure shopping rather than the full-on Christmas shopping that used to take place because they are going to maximise the discounting available through Black Friday. So, really, you know, in terms of what you guys do in terms of looking at productivity of staffing and efficiencies, it they need you know, retailers need to be laying it on thick around now, um, and actually probably then easing off as you get a little bit as you get towards Christmas, because now's peak.

SPEAKER_01 14:54

Yeah, it reminds me a little bit of the the I call it the iPhone rush years ago. We we do a lot in telco and there was that massive peak. I can't remember when it is end of September, is it start of October when the iPhone got launched and it it's non-existent now because it's all it's all done online, you pre-order it, you go and click and collect, you have it delivered. So, but that really helps them because it flattens their staffing profile, which makes a massive difference. And actually, everybody still gets their iPhone, so it um it's not a bad thing.

SPEAKER_00 15:21

No, for retailers themselves, I mean obviously they're looking to future-proof themselves, and quite rightly so. They're looking to add processes that become much more streamlined and make sure all those additional NI costs don't hit them again and again and again. Not so great for retail employment,

Footfall, Sales, And Inflation Reality

SPEAKER_00 15:34

of course, and future longevity of jobs, but better for the retail sustainability.

SPEAKER_01 15:40

And are there any particular sectors? I know again we've talked about health and beauty before, where it's it's kind of been relatively stable. Certainly, the the more considered purchases, so furniture track not particularly well. Are those still consistent or are there any movers and shakers?

SPEAKER_00 15:54

Well, in October, health and beauty had a bit of a torrid time. The ATV went up by 3.1%, which is still below inflation, but uh transactions dropped by over 8%, customers dropped by 6%. So we can see that people were really starting to pull back on those discretionary purchases. You know, fashion, interestingly, transactions dropped by 2%, customers by 2.6%. So fewer people were buying, but it wasn't this huge drop, but they've come from a much lower base, you know, they've had these big drops. And at the same time, their ATV would drop by 2%. So that's reflecting really the discounting that's been happening in fashion.

SPEAKER_01 16:31

Um still, yeah, everywhere's Christmas party dresses and stuff, and uh, everyone I speak to in any pretty much every organization we work with says, yeah, we don't really have a Christmas party anymore. They give us X each colleague and you you do what you want. It's less HR hassle, less people hassle. So that I don't know if if big Christmas do still exist, I'm out of the loop of it.

SPEAKER_00 16:52

I mean, I'm sure they do. I've spoken with some my friends and someone who work for big corporates. They they do have a Christmas party, but it's certainly a lot less because people are working from home, so getting people together, you know, it's much more expensive, people need to stay in hotels and all that sort of stuff than they used to. So, and I think people are a bit less, a bit more mindful about their time and the cost and doing it and how they're going to, you know, manage that in terms of family life. So you're right, I don't think the Christmas party is as big a deal as it used to be. And I think, you know, fashion's sort of just expecting to be discounting now, really. It's just part of the course. You know, I think we all need to be a little bit sceptical when we see the discount labels go on because they're probably not actually being discounted at all.

SPEAKER_01 17:37

Yeah, it could be made to discount.

SPEAKER_00 17:39

Absolutely.

SPEAKER_01 17:40

Any other insights that you want to share before you have a quick think about December?

SPEAKER_00 17:44

Well, I mean, only the you know, another element that we need to think about when we're looking at a whole piece of consumer confidence, and that's bumbling along at the bottom still, it hasn't improved, it dropped to, you know, it's it's from the summer it it it it it decreased, it you know, it dropped away and it's not really gotten back. It's sitting the GFK end it's sitting at minus 19 now in November, and their months are slightly off kilter, so their their November is mid-October to mid-November. October is mid-7 minus 17, September minus 19. So it's sort of bumbling along at the bottom. So people, it's just reinforcing everything we know, really. All the indicators are saying the same thing that it's tough out there, and people aren't spending money and feeling nervous. So, you know, there isn't anything that is surprising, particularly. Internet sales as a proportion of total retail sales, is sort of sitting there or thereabouts in October. It was 28.1% of all retail spending was online, slight increase from September, which is 27.5, but it's still sitting just over a quarter of all it of all retail spends online. So, and but interestingly, food stores, online food, doesn't shift away from 9.6% of total food spending. You know, the vast majority of us go into store and buy our food and have always done and probably always will continue to do that.

Jobs Market, Budget Jitters, And Risk

SPEAKER_00 19:10

So, but it's clothing really, and that's sitting sort of 20-29% of total clothing spend online. But again, that's it's it's increased slightly, but not massively, slight movement upwards towards the 30%. And people are saying it's gonna top out about 30% or so, so we shall see for that.

SPEAKER_01 19:29

Excellent. Well, we we head into the golden quarter there, don't we? So we're kind of high stakes, high stakes now for those that that that have got everything placed in this period, I think. So, any insight, any predictions you've made for kind of the December and festive period start of sale?

SPEAKER_00 19:48

Yeah, I mean November's gonna be the stronger month of the quarter, the strongest month of the quarter, but it's not gonna be amazing. I did forecast an increase in December, I have to say, just because December was so shockingly bad last year. Yeah. But we'll have to wait and see. I wasn't I mean, that was done before the budget fraudry kicked off. So that has changed really the narrative a little bit. So we shall see. I was only forecasting a one and a half percent increase in sales in in December from last year. But um, last year was very poor at nearly 8% down. So, you know, we are we shall see, we shall see whether we bounce back a little bit from December. But hopefully, I think November with Black Friday might be quite strong.

SPEAKER_01 20:36

Yeah, let's say look when I was out the weekend around Manchester, there was there was a lot of people almost to the point where you thought, oh, it's probably the busiest I've seen Trafford Centre, I don't go that often, but there were there were a lot of people and a lot of people with bags, which was which was good to see people enjoying themselves in the the leisure part as well. So fingers crossed for all those out there who that it's their key period, you know, we've hopefully given you a couple of things to think about and a consistent theme throughout the the various iterations of this podcast. So fingers crossed, Di, and we'll um we'll reconvene once more before Christmas, and hopefully that's got some Black Friday info in, and then it's over to everybody else to deliver over Christmas.

SPEAKER_00 21:13

Absolutely. We'll see each other post budget.

SPEAKER_01 21:16

Brilliant. Thanks, Di.

SPEAKER_00 21:17

Take care.