Welcome to the Productivity Podcast. It's our monthly catch-up with Dan Wurl, ceo and founder at Rendell Intelligence. Hi Di.
Speaker 2:
Hi Simon, how are you?
Speaker 1:
Yeah, good, thank you. And we're in March to April, which is a strange month, isn't it? Because we're comparing an Easter month this year with a non-Easter month last year. Is that correct? Or the other way around it's?
Speaker 2:
the other way around. So not easter this year because, um, that's it was in march, um, but it was easter was in april last year.
Speaker 1:
Okay, so hit us with the stats then how's it looking?
Speaker 2:
I know it was rainy and miserable yeah, it wasn't very nice weather, was it really? And I was anticipating that things would drop off a cliff and indeed they did. Um, so we've got a number of indicators. We We've got footfall into stores from Sensomatic, and April this year versus April last year, 7.2% down, which is not surprising given that it was Easter last year and of course, it's been raining. Likewise from Beauclair, who tracks sales in towns and cities. Sales are actually 11 percent down, but that's sales values.
Speaker 2:
But they've got a number of metrics, one of which is atv average transaction value, and that was just 3.3 percent down, so that it seemed that on the top line, people who were spending were maintaining or spending or at least nearing their transaction value that they were last year. And there's some things to dive into in terms of Boclay data, because they look at 10 different retail categories which are quite interesting and show how people are spending cash, show how people are spending cash. And then, lastly, this morning, that's Friday 24th, the ONS retail sales came out and they showed a year on year drop again of about one and a half percent April to April, with a much bigger drop in fashion and household goods. So all the indicators are pointing the same way, really, and showing the same things, which are that sales have dropped, not surprisingly, and there are some more vulnerable categories than others so household being kind of large, large ticket items yeah, household, which encompasses furniture and all sorts of household items small but also very large household items in town centres.
Speaker 2:
In april that was uh 32 below where it was last year Overall nationally, according to that's Beauclair data. And that's literally physical stores in towns and cities. The ONS data, of course, is online and offline across the entire UK and even they saw a year on year decline of 7.9% in the household goods category. So big drop there. 0.9 percent in the household goods category. So um big drop there.
Speaker 2:
Um, likewise, fashion in towns and cities, in physical stores, dropped by 13 percent, according to beauclair. Um, as did actually hospitality, which isn't surprising given that you know we all, if we were going to go out and have eat, dine and eat out, it would have been in march because of easter and april was pretty miserable. Um, but the ons have uh recorded a drop in sales of nine percent, nine point two percent in in clothing and footwear. So similar types of you know direction of travel. It's those sectors, but one, a couple of sectors that are very resilient, that are very clear of identified, is health and beauty, still continuing the lipstick effect. Um, sales in health and beauty last month were just down 2.9 percent, so they're very weather resilient by the looks of it, and also on top of that, the transaction value for health and beauty rose. Actually, it was the only sector um where it actually rose, but at 2.1 percent so that's been resilient all the way through, hasn't it?
Speaker 1:
I think? Pretty much since we've been talking. So not great weather say, not like for like in terms of Easter month versus Easter month, but some kind of standout drops there, probably larger than expected, would you say.
Speaker 2:
It is larger than I expected. Actually, I mean I knew it would dip. Of course it would, because when you're comparing a non-bank holiday month with a bank holiday month, it's inevitable. But the dip was more severe than I had anticipated. Sorted in line with where it has been, trends aren't shifting, you know. So.
Speaker 2:
You know we've got some strong resilient sectors or more resilient sectors, but fashion is definitely having still having a tough time and household goods are having a tough time, you know, with household goods sales in towns and cities and physical stores a third below where it was last year. That's going to be a shock for all of those furniture stores that are trading out the high streets. But one thing that the Beauclair data did show was that the average transaction value in household goods although they were in total value terms, they were a third down. The average transaction value was 20% higher. So those people who are buying household goods and large-ticket items are obviously the high-end, high-value and they're buying more expensive products. So it's becoming quite polarised those who have money are spending it and those who haven't clearly are not.
Speaker 1:
And we've got some kind of interesting times coming up, haven't we so May? We've got two bank holidays. We've had a bit of nice weather. As we approach the second one, it's not looking so great, so it'll be interesting to see. Inflation figures seems to be dropping and I think are we officially out of recession now. Whether that makes a difference or not, I'm not sure.
Speaker 2:
Yeah, I mean I think the problem with all of these indicators is that the impact on the consumer is very lagged. So you know we're all struggling to make back what we lost when things were really tough. So the positive impact of this turnaround is going to not be felt immediately. Yes, wage inflation is now higher than price inflation, but of course, a lot of people would have spent quite a lot of their savings because they didn't have any cash, so they've got to make that back before they can feel a little bit more affluent. Likewise with inflation. Inflation is interesting because, yes, it has dropped down to 2.3 percent, but largely that's due to drop in fuel and energy costs. You know costs in other areas of our lives are still higher than that and still increasing. So you know that's that's still tough. People are still finding food prices high and they're still rising. So, although you know inflation has dropped back to 2.3% overall, you know prices are still going up and they're just going up by a lesser amount. So the impact on the consumer is going to be lagged.
Speaker 2:
And then we have this sort of disruptor of the election, which hasn't a direct impact on how people spend, necessarily, although it just makes people feel a little bit more uncertain about what the future may hold, and so they may just pull back a little and be a little bit more cautious, because they just don't know what's going to happen. But even you know, whatever government gets in, it's going to be a while before stability returns in terms of policy. They've got summer recess. They're not going to get back into parliament until september. Um, so things aren't going to move very quickly at all. We're not going to see big changes until at least the autumn or even early winter yeah, I was going to ask you about the election.
Speaker 1:
So fourth of july, ironically or not in independence day in america, um, yeah, my assumption would have been that it would be unsettling or unnerving for people and therefore people pause, potentially, depending on you. Know, we've not seen, as we're in the early days of the campaign, in many of the policies that people have come through. I think the key ones, certainly for retail and hospitality, is going to be where the pledges go around national living wage. I know one of the parties is going to be a lot more aggressive potentially than others and that that will have a significant impact on their, their outlook in terms of of spend. We know people have struggled this year 2024 to meet that jump that was announced to 1144. So you know, if that gets more aggressive it could have a detrimental impact in some businesses. But we'll, we'll see where that turns out. Like you say, yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 2:
And of course for business it's about do we make big, significant investment changes during this uncertain period or wait until it all settles down? So you know, in terms of business expansion, that can put a stymie on that a little bit and delay it. But of course you know, in terms of lining things up to benefit from the Christmas trading period really is now that timeline If you're going to make the changes to the business to enable businesses to prosper during the Christmas trading period, it's got to happen now. So there is going to be a lot of debate going on in businesses about whether they carry on with strategies for change or hold off until next year.
Speaker 1:
So it is a pretty uncertain time actually yeah, yeah, and I think history tells us those that hold off tend to suffer more, those that are slightly braver and and push on, because, whichever party gets in or not, the world keeps turning and we'll keep spending, maybe in in different ways, in different amounts, but christmas and those events aren't just going to stop, are they?
Speaker 2:
no, they're not, and I think you know christmas was absolutely dire last year and I think it's inevitably going to be better this year. Um, if you know the simple rule of year on year change, you know when you, when you've got a weak baseline, it's going to look a lot better, unless something absolutely horrendous happens economically, um, or geopolitically. I think christmas is going to be more positive this year, um, and you know, whatever way then the um election goes, it's going to be at least it's coming together of people's viewpoints about what they want for the future, so it's going to be a new start. Whatever that may start may be yeah, yeah and it's done then.
Speaker 1:
So whatever uncertainty it brings in the short term, in the longer term it's locked in for four years and and we've got that cycle again. So short-term uncertainty, more longer-term certainty, hopefully yes, absolutely, absolutely perfect.
Speaker 1:
So we'll pause there. We'll, we'll be back next month and we'll see what, um, what these two bank holidays have brought us, and and the weather, which which will be a mixed bag, really, looking as we're almost at the end of May, where we've been, um, and maybe there's there's a more chat about the election, as people start to put their pledges out there for us to get their votes.
